Rethinking Highest Possible Ambition
2025 is now projected to be the second or third warmest year on record, surpassed only by 2024, the hottest year so far, when global temperatures reached 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels.
Although the long-term global warming trend so far remains below the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target, current emission trajectories suggest with relative certainty that we will surpass 1.5°C in the near future.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines the temporary exceedance and return to the 1.5°C as “overshoot”.
Overshoot brings several new governance challenges with it. One of these is the need for even more mitigation actions as emissions must not only be reduced to achieve net-zero but rather net-negativity in order to return to 1.5°C as quickly as possible.
Author summary: Climate change goals need rethinking.
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